Excerpt from: Bonds and Interest Rates CFDs and Spread Bets
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| December 10, 2007 | | Labour Market Shouldering the Pressures of the Credit Crisis | The jobs data for November would appear to show that the US economy, or at least the labour market, is shouldering the pressures of the credit crisis better than many had expected.
As is often found with the payrolls number, the devil is in the revisions, and in fact the revisions for September and October strike off 48,000 jobs from what the market had previously been working with. But what we do have is a 3 month trend at a steady 4.7% in the unemployment rate, a trend which is enough to suggest the economy is heading for a soft landing.
There is nothing here to sway the Fed to cut rates by half a percentage point next week, a move which many were backing after this week’s poor housing data. The resilience of the jobs market is significant and the market is now dropping the odds of a half point cut to just 25%. | | |
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