Excerpt from:  Futures and Commodity News
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August 07, 2006

USD/EUR Spot Trading

USD may not be best spread bet
Even though some are second-guessing the by-now expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates the same, chances are that the euro will maintain its strength against the U.S. dollar. Even if the Fed does unexpectedly raise rates, the European Central Bank has indicated that more interest rate hikes are in the works for this year, and Bloomberg reports that will probably further buoy the euro.

``There may be some second-guessing'' ahead of the Fed's meeting tomorrow, said Brian Garvey, senior currency strategist in Boston at State Street Global Markets, a unit of the world's largest custodian of investor assets, valued at $10.7 trillion. ``We may have some slight buying back of dollars.''

Sixty-one percent of 46 traders, strategists and investors surveyed by Bloomberg on Aug. 4 from Sydney to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro this week. Fifty-four percent said to sell the currency versus the yen.

Bill Gross, who manages Pimco's $93 billion Total Return Fund, the world's largest bond fund, said in an interview on Aug. 4 from his office in Newport Beach, California, that a sliding U.S. currency may erode overseas demand for long-term U.S. Treasuries...

The euro may be buoyed after European Central Bank policy maker Klaus Liebscher said the bank is ready to raise rates further to keep faster economic growth and near-record oil prices from spurring inflation.

``Upward risks to price stability haven't receded but rather worsened,'' Liebscher said in an interview in Vienna on Aug. 4. ``If we see, based on the data, that a further tightening of the relatively accommodative course is needed, then it will happen.''

The ECB raised its benchmark rate to 3 percent last week. Investors expect the rate to rise to 3.50 percent by March, futures trading shows.

 

Spread bets for spot forex trading are probably best placed in favour of the euro.

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